By now, most utilities in the U.S. are well on their way to being ready for the year 2000 date change. If a city hasnt started the process by now, said Mike Young, director of the Year 2000 Organization in California, its probably too late.
"At least 15 percent of all software applications will not be fixed in time," says Capers Jones, founder of SPR and author of the recently-released book, "The Year 2000 Software Problem: Quantifying the Costs and Assessing the Consequences (Addison Wesley Longman, 1997)." Jones is an expert on the economic impact of the year 2000 software problem as well as an author and speaker on software productivity and measurement.
For instance, the search for embedded chips at drinking water facilities in the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California took an outside vendor a month, Young said.
In the Presidents Council on Y2K Conversions Second Quarterly assessment, it is reported that:
* There are about 190,000 drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities in the country. * Surveys conducted last year by major trade associations representing drinking water and wastewater utilities indicated that most were aware of the problem and expected to be Y2K compliant in time. * Most of these systems can convert to manual operation when automated processes are disrupted.
The assessment also noted that smaller water utilities may be less prepared to deal with the Y2K transition. One survey showed that some wastewater utilities and some of the smaller rural drinking water (and ) utilities - those that serve communities less than 10,000 people - may not be as aware of Y2K problems as they should be.
Even systems that have been checked or upgraded still can cause problems unexpectedly. For instance, one city checked with all appropriate equipment manufacturers and got assurances of Y2K compliance, but when they tested the systems, discovered a problem. A manufacturer had been mistaken - some of the equipment was not compliant. Adequate testing well in advance can find pitfalls such as this.
"Quite apart from what we do, its interesting that in this country, about a third of the Year 2000 problems that have already occurred, have occurred in applications that nominally were fixed, tested and put back into service," said Jones.
"It is obvious that year 2000 repairs are not 100 percent efficient; otherwise we wouldnt have so many problems in applications that were remediated." An April 18 workshop on Y2K readiness was packed with interested listeners at the Information Management and Technology Conference in New Orleans, La. The conference was hosted by American Water Works Association.
Mike Young, director of the group that handles Y2K preparedness for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California spoke at the conference, warning managers to thoroughly check older software and custom programs, which often arent as easy to upgrade as nationally-available software packages.
When one element is changed in a system, the way it interacts with all the other elements may change. Retesting after each Y2K upgrade will head off problems down the road.
Bad Fix Injection Rate
The "Murphys Law" of advance planning may influence year 2000 repairs - a concept called the "bad fix injection rate." The concept says that every time a software problem gets fixed, there is a small probability that the new version may get a fresh bug in it that wasnt there before. The U.S. average is about 7 percent, Jones said.
Bad Fix Injection Rate
So any company working on its Year 2000 project should plan for the possible creation of new software errors in the process of fixing the date-related ones.
Bad Fix Injection Rate
In order to legally call themselves Y2K compliant, companies that make control or instrument-related equipment (anything with a date-related chip or software that handles dates) must pass a list of specific tests, the most interesting of which involves recognition of the year 2000 as a leap year, Young said.
Bad Fix Injection Rate
Most utilities are finished assessing their Y2K readiness and have developed a plan for action. Many are halfway to completion on that plan.
Bad Fix Injection Rate
The EPA recommends that utilities already should have completed assessments of all of their systems by now.
Bad Fix Injection Rate
Modification, repair or replacement of systems or components should be completed by June 30, 1999. Drafts of contingency plans should be finished by June 30, and the final version completed by Sept. 30.
Bad Fix Injection Rate
Testing and validation of updated systems should be done by July 31. Testing should be completed in accordance with EPAs Y2K Enforcement Policy, EPA said. Finally, readjustment of the systems to make sure they are operating correctly should happen by Sept. 30.
Bad Fix Injection Rate
For example, the Philadelphia Water Department finished its inventory of applications in 1996. Implementation plans for non-compliant applications were started in FY 1997, with testing scheduled to finish by July 1999. Philadephias inventory of instrumentation and chips was completed in Dec. 1998, and its operational contingency plans were developed in February 1999.
Bad Fix Injection Rate
Some of the departments equipment is still being upgraded, such as process control and SCADA systems. Critical components in these systems are scheduled to be completed by fall of 1999. Emergency preparation drills are planned.
Bad Fix Injection Rate
The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California began testing in early 1999 - too late, according to Young. The district was 55 percent complete with upgrading and testing its SCADA systems in April. Water supply systems were 10 percent upgraded, embedded chips were at 59 percent, contingency systems were at 50 percent, and critical business system upgrades were 22 percent complete. No non-critical business system upgrades had been started.
Managing the Progress of Y2K Readiness
Jack Jacobs of EMA Services, Inc., also was a speaker at the IMTECH Year 2000 workshop. He suggested a seven-step process to finding out how plans are proceeding:
Managing the Progress of Y2K Readiness
* Review existing plans * Identify service level expectations * Prepare a business model * Identify risks * Conduct scenario testing * Analyze contingencies * Develop and test the plan
Managing the Progress of Y2K Readiness
Many companies have hired year 2000 solution providers to fix faulty applications. Others have in-house software staffers working full time on the overwhelmingly complicated repairs. Planning and risk assessment software helps some of these utilities stay on track in this effort.
Managing the Progress of Y2K Readiness
Some cities are turning to third-party Y2K evaluators like Software Productivity Research, which is offering a Year 2000 verification service called QuickCheck.
Managing the Progress of Y2K Readiness
Evaluation services allow companies to ascertain whether they will meet the deadline for specific mission-critical applications. Companies receive an assessment of the likelihood that specific applications will complete year 2000 fixes on time, and can help create contingency plans.
Managing the Progress of Y2K Readiness
QuickView applies standard assessment and benchmark methodology to mission-critical applications and returns information on whether the problems will mostly be fixed in time, and if not, when they will be fixed, and how many date problems are likely to be left over to cause trouble. And then, to repair those problems on the other side of 2000, QuickView reports how much effort will be needed to do manual backups while the software is out of service.
Managing the Progress of Y2K Readiness
QuickViews software estimating tool, KnowledgePlan, predicts schedules and latent date problems left in after remediation.
Managing the Progress of Y2K Readiness
The estimation tool integrates with Microsoft Project and includes a sizing wizard that walks users through the sizing process and addresses the issue of how "scope creep" will likely impact the project, a goals wizard that helps users identify and achieve key project goals, and additional templates that allow the user to start a project more quickly.
Priorities
Not every Year 2000 issue has to be dealt with before the Year 2000. Utilities are sorting out their systems into critical and non-critical priorities. For example, critical business systems identified by the Philadelphia department include water treatment, water conveyance, wastewater/stormwater collection, wastewater treatment, regulatory monitoring and customer billing. A non-critical system would be a system which does not impact public health or safety, like the billing system. Utilities are very concerned with systems such as billing, but they usually resolve safety-related issues first.
Contingency Planning
All systems should have a contingency plan for unexpected problems and emergencies, including possible external service and supply failures. Among other things, these plans should address how systems would be manually operated until the computerization problems are resolved, EPA advises on its web site. These plans should be developed simultaneously with the correction phase, and revised after the testing/validation phase.
Contingency Planning
Electric power could indirectly affect the water industrys ability to deliver safe drinking water to the public. "If we have no electric power," Jones explained, "it will be a long time before we can find and fix the other Year 2000 problems, because our computers wouldnt be working, so we have to get the power back on so we see the others."
Contingency Planning
The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California uses water pumped in from elsewhere, which would make them very vulnerable to electrical outages. To combat this, Young said they would have contingency plans in effect, such as backup generators and full storage tanks.
Contingency Planning
Southern California will prepare for possible emergencies and other unforeseen events by setting up and practicing use of manual controls, establishing alternate suppliers of chemicals and parts, and putting together safety plans, Young said.
Contingency Planning
Philadelphia identified five potential disaster scenarios: loss of electrical power, loss of natural gas, loss of communications, transportation disruptions, and supply chain disruptions. Contingency plans are set up to address each of these issues.
Contingency Planning
No Year 2000 program is complete without a clear contingency plan, Jack Jacobs of EMA Services said. Avoiding surprises of any kind is the goal many utilities are working toward. Water and wastewater departments can plan for possible outages in electric power and communications. Jacobs recommended several possible solutions for municipalities to consider putting in place:
Contingency Planning
* Develop "work-arounds" - e.g., manual work processes * Identify alternative service providers and update service agreements * Identify alternative material suppliers and storage needs * Prepare backup procedures and checklists in the event of system failures * Update emergency operations team responsibilities
Conclusion
In the final months of preparation for the date change, businesses and governmental organizations alike will need to make sure that all processes and systems are Y2K-ready. After checking with the manufacturers of the parts and software to see whether their products are compliant, managers also will need to run comprehensive tests to make sure.
Conclusion
A thoroughly organized approach is best in this type of effort - the utility may even choose to contract with a consultant who specializes in Year 2000 readiness.
Conclusion
The Internet can be a useful tool in staying informed of any news or regulations having to do with the date change issue.
Conclusion
If all were to go well, that would be enough. But if the utility should encounter an outage or unexpected problem, thorough contingency planning and drilling will carry the city through the date change safely and smoothly.
Some web sites to visit for more Y2K information:
* News, links and discussions for all industries: www.year2000.com * Coalition 2000 - The Network for Year 2000 Community Preparedness: www.coalition2000.org/ * Year 2000 information from DavisLogic LLC, including a link to an interview about small utilities roles in the process: www.davislogic.com/ * Y2K frequently asked questions and other stories: www.bangkokpost.net/ * The Presidents Council on Y2K Conversion has released the Second Quarterly assessment, found at: www.y2k.gov/new/FINAL3.htm * New York Times Learning Network and the Presidents Councils "Y2K Lesson Plan": www.nytimes.com/learning/teachers/NIE/Y2K/ * Software Productivity Research, a source for consulting and educational services as well as turnkey software development tools: www.spr.com * The U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys recommendations and data on the problem: www.epa.gov/year2000
Y2K discussion groups:
* Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies: www.amwawater.org/y2k/ wwwboard.html * Water Environment Federation: www.bizinfonet.com/wef.org/forums/ * American Water Works Association: www.awwa.org
