By Charles G. Stolberg
Each fall since 1996, the Submersible Wastewater Pump Association (SWPA) has conducted an Industry Outlook Survey among its members to develop a forecast of the submersible wastewater pump industry for the coming year by gathering estimates of expected industry performance, by product category and for the industry in general.
The results of the 2003 survey predict continued industry growth, as measured by pump shipments, with an emphasis on more acceptance of variable speed drives as the drive market increases in size and more sophisticated controls and monitoring systems.
According to the results of the survey, Grinder Pump shipments are expected to increase by 5.7 percent in 2003 over 2002; Solids-Handling Pump shipments are expected to increase by 4.9 percent; and Dry Pit Submersible Pump Shipments are expected to increase by 4.7 percent.
Some of the general comments about the outlook for the industry in 2003 from the survey respondents were as follows:
• The market will continue to be strong and significant growth may be obtained if economic conditions do no make a dramatic change.
• I expect to see continued low growth rates for wastewater. Trend could last another two to five years as water development projects continue to downsize.
• Technological advances in monitoring, controls and level controls will be more evident.
• Even in "bad" times, sales increase.
• Expect a positive year for 2003 with a stronger trend possibly in 2004 and 2005.
• The market will and must continue to increase. It will be limited in the rate of growth due to the availability of money.
• I think overall the industry will stay flat over the next year.
• The Industrial Lift Station market will grow as soon as the Industrial market comes back which should be in the Spring of 2003.
• I anticipate little or no growth through most of 2003. New business opportunities will be from obtaining competitive market share, new products and upgrades to existing materials. No real opportunities for market growth.
• Extremely competitive pricing due to fewer jobs and industry excess. It will be a difficult year.
• As the economy goes, so goes the industry. The choices made in regard to federal spending will affect the wastewater pump industry 12 to 24 months out. Therefore look for impacts of increased federal spending on terrorism or war with Iraq to negatively impact business in the long run.
In response to the question, "List your thoughts on any product changes that you expect to emerge in 2003 (for example, design changes, new technologies, etc.)" respondents to the survey said:
• We will see more acceptance of variable speed drives as the drive market increases in size.
• There will be a demand for more sophisticated controls and monitoring systems.
• More efficient pumps.
• Increase in VFDs.
• Larger horsepowers and discharge sizes.
• More efficient motors; inverter duty rated.
• Controls/electronics always a factor in our industry.
• Motor cooling; immersible vs. submersibles dry pit technology; new self-cleaning intakes.
• The electronic side of the industry in controls will show the largest increase due to technology, i.e., efficiency, size, temperature and cost.
• I expect VFDs to be reduced in size, be less temperature sensitive and reduced in costs.
• The VFD systems will continue to become more popular as the cost of these drives continue to come down and the demand for more efficient pumping continues to rise.
• More focus on integrating controls, closed look cooling; discussion of LCC will continue, but buy-in will be slow.
• More emphasis on electronic controls.
• More monitoring – communications and diagnostics.
• Whole life and life cycle costing will continue to grow in importance.
Most often mentioned as important factors that will influence the marketplace for submersible wastewater pumps in 2003 were: extension of sewer lines to include more homes; federal and state funding; the economy; increased efficiencies of motors reducing operating costs; government spending on environmental infrastructure and the offset effect of water security spending; drought-caused changes in ways water is supplied and released; housing starts; aged collection systems; technology; and greater regulation of environmental violations and emphasis on asset management.
About the Athor: Charles G. Stolberg is Executive Director of the Submersible Wastewater Pump Association (SWPA). SWPA's members are manufacturers of submersible wastewater pumps for municipal and industrial applications and manufacturers of component parts and accessory items for submersible pump lift stations. The association's pump manufacturers produce more than 80 percent of these pumps shipped in the United States.
