In the wake of recent extreme meteorological conditions, conspiracy theories about weather manipulation have circulated online. Some people have suggested the government has created storms, while others say they’ve simply made them stronger. In either case, though, the prevalence of such theories raises the question: Can anyone actually control the weather?
The answer is more complicated than it may initially seem. Weather modification technology does exist and has been in use for some time, but its effects and real-world usage are not what many online theories would suggest.
Does the government control the weather?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has clarified that the agency does not modify the weather, nor does it fund any efforts to do so. According to NOAA, there is also no technology available that would enable any government body to create, strengthen or steer hurricanes. However, changing the weather in a different sense is theoretically possible.
Some private companies and state governments use a technique called cloud seeding to promote rainfall. Between 1962 and 1982, NOAA helped research whether this practice could weaken hurricanes, though the researchers were unsuccessful in doing so. While cloud seeding may have some effect on weather patterns, it’s not strong or controllable enough to yield big results like stopping a hurricane.
Weather modification may not be enough to stop, start or control hurricanes, but it can influence precipitation. Some governments use cloud seeding to encourage rain, often to counteract droughts or help fight wildfires.
According to the Government Accountability Office, federal cloud seeding support is minimal, but nine states do use and fund the practice. While NOAA may not be involved, these other U.S. authorities do take part in it. Private cloud seeding is also relatively common in some areas, but it’s not as strong or mature a science as conspiracy theories may depict.
How does weather modification work?
Cloud seeding injects fine particles — most often silver iodide — into clouds. Once in the air, these droplets give moisture a point to anchor to, encouraging water buildup in the cloud, which can eventually lead to precipitation. The process is similar to how natural rain and snow occur, but puts it on a larger scale so people can theoretically create rain on demand.
Despite the sound theory behind cloud seeding, its effectiveness is debatable. Studies suggest it can increase annual rainfall by up to 20%, but even that figure is an estimate. It’s difficult to draw a cause-and-effect relationship between cloud seeding and eventual precipitation, as it’s unclear if it might’ve rained anyway without the interference.
It’s also only possible to seed clouds in the right conditions. Silver iodide particles won’t produce any effect on the weather if they don’t have the correct kinds of clouds to rest on and cause a reaction in.
Some researchers have suggested other weather manipulation strategies, but none have seen large-scale adoption or success. One of the most prominent, solar geoengineering, aims to reflect more sunlight away from the Earth to fight climate change by dispersing reflective particles into the atmosphere. However, some scientists have warned of negative side effects, which has slowed efforts to test it.
Could weather manipulation help municipal water systems?
While cloud seeding and other weather modification methods may not be enough to control hurricanes, they could impact rainfall. Consequently, the technology could be useful for municipal water systems.
Climate change has affected water supplies in many areas. Several U.S. regions saw persistent drought throughout 2024, with at least two states experiencing their worst years on record. Promoting rainfall through cloud seeding could counteract the trend and provide needed moisture to offset the impact on local reservoirs.
At the same time, the lack of clarity on cloud seeding’s effectiveness may hold it back. Some water organizations may not want to invest in weather modification since spending elsewhere may produce more significant impacts.
Regulatory obstacles may also pose a challenge. Any entity seeking to engage in weather modification must gain government authorization before proceeding. While drought relief efforts are unlikely to cause issues here, the lengthy and complicated process of filing and waiting for approval could turn some agencies away.
How to begin a cloud seeding program legally
Utilities hoping to start cloud seeding must begin by ensuring it’s legal in their state. In 2024, Tennessee outright banned the practice, and Florida has recently proposed a bill to ban it. It is legal in most areas but may require compliance with a few state-specific steps.
In Idaho, cloud seeding can only happen from November 1 to March 31 when done via aircraft and through April 30 when done from the ground. Many states also require organizations to obtain a permit for each weather modification project, usually entailing an application detailing their expertise, goals, and financial and environmental responsibility.
The federal government is less stringent but still has some requirements. Any entity performing cloud seeding must gain authorization through an initial report given to NOAA explaining the project. Intermittent and final reports are also necessary to show what the seeding entailed.
Learning about state-specific regulations will reveal what utilities must do to start their cloud seeding projects. Those in California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Texas, Utah or Wyoming should also check their state seeding programs to learn how they may acquire funding and guidance.
The future of weather modification technology
Further research into weather modification solutions could make it a more viable option for drought-stricken water systems. It’s already relatively cost-effective, costing just a few dollars per acre-foot of water, so there’s room for funding additional experimentation. Still, trial and error in researching could quickly lead to rising costs.
Artificial intelligence (AI) could accelerate this technology’s development. AI-powered weather modeling could reveal which conditions most impact precipitation and how humans could create them on demand. Such a use case is mostly theoretical for now, though, so its potential in climate engineering remains unclear.
No one can fully control the weather
Rainfall, hurricanes and other weather events are complex. There are too many factors that are difficult or impossible to change. As a result, while some degree of modification is possible, no person or government agency can control the weather.
While the technology is still developing, cloud seeding and other methods could prove useful for water systems in the future. More research is necessary, and the effects likely won’t be astronomical, but the potential is promising.
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